2027 budget: revenue debate nears its end in the Assemblée, massive rejection expected

Updated Thursday at 1.10pm: the rejection took place on Wednesday, by 458 votes to none. Read our article.

The Assemblée nationale, France's lower house, is approaching the moment of truth on the 2027 budget. The formal vote on the first part, covering revenue, could not be held on Tuesday because the amendments had not been exhausted: 758 were still to be examined on Monday evening, according to LCP. It is not the first setback: the vote had already been pushed back on 20 October.

No new date had been set in the articles consulted on Wednesday morning. Public Sénat mentions a vote later in the week. RN MP Sébastien Chenu said on Monday that at this pace the debate could end on Wednesday evening, LCP reports.

Rejection seen as highly likely

The suspense is less about the date than the outcome. LCP considers it more than likely that the revenue section will be rejected, as the amended bill suits nobody. Public Sénat takes the same view and expects a massive rejection.

There is a recent precedent: LCP recalls that the debates on the Social Security budget had already produced a text that satisfied no camp.

The consequence would be immediate. If the section is rejected, the first reading ends there and MPs do not examine the spending section. The Senate then works on the government's original version, without the amendments adopted since debate opened on 13 October.

No 49.3, not just yet

Sébastien Lecornu is not expected to reach for Article 49.3, which forces a bill through without a vote, at this stage, according to Public Sénat. The Speaker of the Assemblée and the general rapporteur have argued for using it before the bill returns from the Senate, without success so far, LCP says.

The weapon remains on the table for the new reading. It would, however, expose the government to a no-confidence motion, whose adoption would also mean the rejection of the bill.

Key dates

The timetable detailed by Public Sénat sets out several deadlines:

• Midnight on 17 November: deadline for the Assemblée to examine the bill at first reading.
• 20 November to 8 December: debate on the state budget in the Senate chamber, with a formal vote on 9 December.
• Before mid-December: meeting of the joint committee of MPs and senators.
• Midnight on 17 December: end of the 70-day period after which the budget could be implemented by ordinances.

That last route has never been used under the Fifth Republic, Public Sénat points out. It remains tightly framed: most specialists believe the government would then have to stick to its original text. Another way out, the special law, already used in 2024 and 2025, remains possible, particularly in the event of a no-confidence vote.

What now?

The coming hours will show whether MPs get through the remaining amendments. The debate continues on the eve of Thursday's cross-sector day of strikes, of which the draft budget is one of the targets.