Iran: Trump threatens a sledgehammer blow as Tehran puts Hormuz on the table
On the eve of the midterms, Donald Trump on Sunday raised the threat of fresh strikes on Iran. On Monday, Tehran said it was ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, on conditions. In France, where diesel is still above €2.28, the escalation is being closely watched.
Tensions are rising again between Washington and Tehran. At a rally in Iowa on Sunday evening, Donald Trump raised the threat of renewed bombing of Iran, two days before the US midterm elections.
Speaking in Iowa on Sunday, Donald Trump said the only reason he had not yet finished with Iran was that he wanted to be nice, but that at some point the United States would have to deal them a sledgehammer blow.
The US president added that the operation could be carried out in ten minutes. The day before, he had spoken of the need to deal with one or two more sites, citing the peak nicknamed Pickaxe Mountain, near the Natanz enrichment site, which US intelligence suspects of housing an underground nuclear complex. Tehran denies seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu pushes, Trump holds back
According to US outlet Axios, Donald Trump spoke by phone on Saturday with Benjamin Netanyahu about the timing of a possible military escalation. The Israeli prime minister reportedly urged him to strike the day after the midterms, due on Tuesday, while the US president preferred to give negotiations a chance. Several US media outlets mention a short, intense campaign after the vote.
Iran's response: threats and an outstretched hand
Tehran responded on two fronts. On the one hand, army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia warned that a new conflict could last longer than the previous one, and that Washington would not be able to dictate its end on its own. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had promised on Saturday a response with no geographical limits.
On the other, Iran said on Monday it was ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, compared with seven in its initial plan, provided the United States accepted its demands. Qatar is holding intensive consultations between the two sides, and an Iranian delegation has travelled to Qatar.
The context remains explosive. The Israeli-American offensive launched on 28 February killed thousands of civilians, as well as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, over some forty days of bombing. A ceasefire in April, followed by a memorandum of understanding in June, did not hold: strikes resumed this summer. A relative lull has prevailed since early September.
The French angle: the pump on the front line
For French motorists, the stakes are concrete. Diesel was still selling at an average of €2.283 a litre at 4pm on Monday, according to official data compiled by franceinfo, and SP95-E10 unleaded at €2.109. On Sunday the government began releasing 10 million barrels of diesel from strategic stocks bought before the war, sold well below the market price.
The result: an average drop of just under 9 cents between Saturday and Monday, far from the 18 cents targeted by the government. And the effect is time-limited: these reserves are meant to supply the market until the end of January.
Energy specialist Nicolas Goldberg told franceinfo there was no magic wand, and that within three months the axe would fall.
What next
All eyes are now on the result of Tuesday's midterms, and then on Washington's response to Iran's offer on Hormuz. In France, the government is counting on a fall in diesel prices that should last at least three months.
